PREDICTION SYSTEM FOR THE AMOUNT OF SUGAR PRODUCTION USING ADAPTIVE NEURO-FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM

Abstract

Sugar is one of the staple foods most Indonesians use, so sugar production needs to be done optimally to meet people's needs. This research will design a prediction system for the amount of sugar production in PTPN XI PG Prajekan using the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method. ANFIS is a combined method of two systems, namely a fuzzy logic system and an artificial neural network system. This research consists of data collection, ANFIS system design, ANFIS training, ANFIS testing, accuracy calculation, and result analysis. The prediction system for the amount of sugar production is designed to predict the variable which is the amount of sugar production in the year using the input variables (sugarcane harvested area in year ), (amount of sugarcane in year ), (average of yield in year ), and (number of milling days in year ). The experiments in this research used variations of the type of membership function and the number of membership functions. The best model obtained in this research is a model with a difference between two sigmoidal membership functions and a product of two sigmoidal membership functions with a total of 2 membership functions for each input variable. Both models have the same Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value, which is 1.79% in the training process and 4.82% in the testing process.