Abstract
Changes are the main causes of delays and cost overruns in construction projects. Various change management systems have been developed to minimize the impacts of changes and to facilitate good project management. This paper presents a change prediction system using activity-based dependency structure matrix (DSM) to facilitate change management. DSM is used to model the process that may occur as a result of changes. Consequently changes can be predicted by setting the change criteria for each activity in the form of rework scope. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulation is introduced to analyze the change probability of activities involved in construction projects. The effectiveness of the prediction system is verified by applying this system to an office building project. This study provides a useful tool for project management teams to manage changes proactively and efficiently.
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