Prediction Study of Tunnel Collapse Risk in Advance based on Efficacy Coefficient Method and Geological Forecast

Abstract

Collapse is one of the most common accidents in underground constructions. Risk evaluation is the method of measuring the risk of chamber collapse. To ensure the safety of construction, a risk evaluation model of tunnel collapse based on an efficacy coefficient method and geological prediction was put forward. Based on the comprehensive analysis of collapse factors, five main factors including rock uniaxial compressive strength, surrounding rock integrated coefficient, state of discontinuous structural planes, the angle between tunnel axis and major structural plane and underground water were chosen as the risk evaluation indices of tunnel collapse. The evaluation indices were quantitatively described by using TSP203 system and core-drilling to establish the risk early warning model of tunnel collapse based on the basic principle of the efficacy coefficient method. The model established in this research was applied in the collapse risk recognition of Kiaochow Bay subsea tunnel in Qingdao, China. The results showed that the collapse risk recognition method presents higher prediction accuracy and provided a new idea for the risk prediction of tunnel collapse.