Prediction on the Peak of the CO2 Emissions in China Using the STIRPAT Model

Abstract

Climate change has threatened our economic, environmental, and social sustainability seriously. The world has taken active measures in dealing with climate change to mitigate carbon emissions. Predicting the carbon emissions peak has become a global focus, as well as a leading target for China’s low carbon development. China has promised its carbon emissions will have peaked by around 2030, with the intention of peaking earlier. Scholars generally have studied the influencing factors of carbon emissions. However, research on carbon emissions peaks is not extensive. Therefore, by setting a low scenario, a middle scenario, and a high scenario, this paper predicts China’s carbon emissions peak from 2015 to 2035 based on the data from 1998 to 2014 using the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model. The results show that in the low, middle, and high scenarios China will reach its carbon emissions peak in 2024, 2027, and 2030, respectively. Thus, this paper puts forward the large-scale application of technology innovation to improve energy efficiency and optimize energy structure and supply and demand. China should use industrial policy and human capital investment to stimulate the rapid development of low carbon industries and modern agriculture and service industries to help China to reach its carbon emissions peak by around 2030 or earlier.