Prediction on Shanghai's Energy Consumption Trend and Carbon Emission Peak

Abstract

This article did some simulation in allusion to Shanghai's carbon emissions before 2050 and discussed research methods of urban carbon emissions trends. In allusion to urban problems, this paper used the Logistic curve to approach urban population growth rate and employed Nonlinear Economic Dynamics to predict Shanghai's economic growth rate before 2050. Adopting the optimal growth model proposed by Yongbin Zhu and Zheng Wang (2009), this paper carried out some researches on Shanghai's energy consumption and carbon emissions. The results show that Shanghai's energy consumption and carbon emission increase in the curve of inversed “U”. The peak of energy consumption and carbon emissions will be in 2040. The value of reaching peak in Shanghai is a litter bigger than other provinces relatively, reflecting that reducing carbon dioxide in Shanghai still has a long way to go.