Prediction on construction industry safety performance based on AHP and grey system

Abstract

With the frequent occurrence of construction safety accidents, it is imperative to improve the safety performance of the construction industry. To predict safety performance scientifically, the number of construction accident fatalities was selected as an indicator of safety performance. This study combined the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey relational analysis (GRA) to identify labor productivity, construction area of the house, and the number of construction enterprises and employees of the construction enterprises as the main factors affecting the number of construction accident fatalities. Then, this study used the grey prediction theory to establish a GM(1,5) model to predict the number of safety accident fatalities in 2013-2019. The results showed that the model has great prediction accuracy and can be used to predict future construction safety performance. Through the prediction of safety performance, managers can evaluate the development trends of construction projects. Therefore, they can take timely measures to reduce the occurrence of safety accidents. Meanwhile, the study provides a new optimization method for the development of the GM(1,N) model and the application of real data.