Prediction of wintertime Northern Hemisphere blocking by the NCEP Climate Forecast System

Abstract

Daily output from the hindcasts by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is analyzed to understand CFSv2’s skill in forecasting wintertime atmospheric blocking in the Northern Hemisphere. Prediction skills of sector blocking, sector-blocking episodes, and blocking onset/decay are assessed with a focus on the Euro-Atlantic sector (20°W–45°E) and the Pacific sector (160°E–135°W). Features of associated circulation and climate patterns are also examined.