Prediction of Wind, Wave, and Storm Surge due to Hurricane ISAAC in the Northern Gulf Coast

Abstract

This paper presents real-time predictions of wind, waves, and coastal flows by using an integrated meteorological, coastal, and ocean processes model. The highly efficient computational performance of this model enables wind and storm surge forecasting in the northern Gulf coasts including the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coastal regions and the major river systems such as the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers. Simulations were done on a personal computer. In the prediction of wind fields, a newly developed tropical cyclonic wind and atmospheric pressure model is used to reconstruct wind field by taking account into the hurricane decay effect after hurricane makes its landfall. The predictions for four advisory tracks of ISAAC were started before the landfall of this hurricane on Aug. 29, 2012, by using NOAA's advisory track data and the H*wind data fields. The tracks used in the study are Advisory #27, 29a, 30a, and 39. The predicted wind and storm surge are compared with the real-time observations by NOAA gauges in the area. The real-time predictions of storm surges in Isaac caught the timing of the flood peak in the Gulf coasts. The model gives more accurate water levels when the hurricane was approaching the land and the track data become more accurate. It demonstrates that this model has a good feature both in computational efficiency and accuracy to be an operational forecasting tool.