Prediction of wetland biodiversity pattern under the current land-use mode and wetland sustainable management in Sanjiang Plain, China

Abstract

Wetland destruction and degradation have been increasing gradually. The biodiversity of the remaining wetlands is under unprecedented threat. Identifying the future trend of wetland biodiversity is a critical step to provide early warnings for wetland biodiversity protection and management. However, studies have focused mainly on the current biodiversity assessment and protection, without emphasizing on the prediction of future changes. Combining the advantages of the key indicators of wetland biodiversity simulation (wetland pattern and hydrological connectivity; PHC) and CA_Markov of land use prediction, this study proposes a prediction framework for wetland biodiversity. Taking Sanjiang Plain as an example, this study predicted the changing trend of wetland biodiversity in the study area and evaluated the potential loss of wetland biodiversity in each reserve. The results revealed that the cultivated land occupation mainly caused the change in the spatial patterns of wetland biodiversity in the study area. According to the land use development trend from 2010 to 2015, the indexes of wetland PHC in the study area will decline significantly from 2020 to 2030, and the wetland biodiversity predicted by our framework will be transformed from the medium to the low level (the biodiversity conservation value will decrease 7.40% on average, with the wetland area reduced by 2.74%). Each reserve in the study area will experience various degrees of degradation in biodiversity due to the decrease in hydrological connectivity. The framework of wetland biodiversity prediction proposed in this study can provide technical support for predicting the changing trend in wetland biodiversity at the regional scale and a reference for long-term protection and monitoring strategies of wetland biodiversity at the reserve scale as an early warning.