Prediction of Water Saturation from Well Log Data by Machine Learning Algorithms: Boosting and Super Learner

Abstract

Intelligent predictive methods have the power to reliably estimate water saturation (Sw) compared to conventional experimental methods commonly performed by petrphysicists. However, due to nonlinearity and uncertainty in the data set, the prediction might not be accurate. There exist new machine learning (ML) algorithms such as gradient boosting techniques that have shown significant success in other disciplines yet have not been examined for Sw prediction or other reservoir or rock properties in the petroleum industry. To bridge the literature gap, in this study, for the first time, a total of five ML code programs that belong to the family of Super Learner along with boosting algorithms: XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, AdaBoost, are developed to predict water saturation without relying on the resistivity log data. This is important since conventional methods of water saturation prediction that rely on resistivity log can become problematic in particular formations such as shale or tight carbonates. Thus, to do so, two datasets were constructed by collecting several types of well logs (Gamma, density, neutron, sonic, PEF, and without PEF) to evaluate the robustness and accuracy of the models by comparing the results with laboratory-measured data. It was found that Super Learner and XGBoost produced the highest accurate output (R2: 0.999 and 0.993, respectively), and with considerable distance, Catboost and LightGBM were ranked third and fourth, respectively. Ultimately, both XGBoost and Super Learner produced negligible errors but the latest is considered as the best amongst all.