Prediction of Water-Blocking Capability of Water-Seepage-Resistance Strata Based on AHP-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method—A Case Study

Abstract

Coal mining under the aquifer in Northwest China has brought a series of ecological problems, such as the decline of groundwater levels and the death of surface vegetation. The study of the impermeability of rock strata between coal seams and the overlying aquifers is of great significance to solve these problems and realize water-preserving coal mining (WPCM). Based on mining-induced overburden damage and permeability deterioration, the concept of the “three seepage zones” of overburden is proposed, namely the pipe flow zone, water seepage zone and nominal water-seepage-resistance zone (NWSRZ). Meanwhile, the concept of water-seepage-resistance strata (WSRS) is put forward from the aspects of initial permeability, structural strength, swelling and the stratigraphic structure of the overlying strata. AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (AHPF) is employed to construct a model to evaluate the water-blocking capacity (WBC) of the WSRS. The model includes three secondary factors and nine tertiary indicators, and the weights and membership functions of the indicators are determined. Subsequently, the model is generalized and applied to the Yu-Shen mining area. The membership degrees are spatially visualized by means of thematic maps. The comprehensive evaluation values Φ of the WBCWSRS of 400 boreholes in the mining area under backfill mining, narrow strip mining, slice mining and longwall cave mining are calculated. Then, the Kriging method is employed to plot the zoning maps of Φ under four different mining methods. In view of different grades of WBCWSRS, three corresponding countermeasures, i.e., mining methods optimization, curtain grouting and underground reservoir construction, are put forward. The fluid–solid coupling embedded in FALC3D software is employed to establish a numerical calculation model to simulate the water table fluctuation of the underground aquifer under the four mining methods, and the reliability of the model is verified indirectly. In this paper, mathematical theory is combined with WPCM to develop an evaluation model of WBCWSRS, which provides a reference for the coordinated development of coal extraction and water resource preservation in arid and semi-arid mining areas.