Prediction of Warfarin Dose in Pediatric Patients: An Evaluation of the Predictive Performance of Several Models.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of pediatric pharmacogenetic-based dose prediction models by using an independent cohort of pediatric patients from a multicenter trial. Clinical and genetic data (CYP2C9 [cytochrome P450 2C9] and VKORC1 [vitamin K epoxide reductase]) were collected from pediatric patients aged 3 months to 17 years who were receiving warfarin as part of standard care at 3 separate clinical sites. The accuracy of 8 previously published pediatric pharmacogenetic-based dose models was evaluated in the validation cohort by comparing predicted maintenance doses to actual stable warfarin doses. The predictive ability was assessed by using the proportion of variance (R(2)), mean prediction error (MPE), and the percentage of predictions that fell within 20% of the actual maintenance dose. Thirty-two children reached a stable international normalized ratio and were included in the validation cohort. The pharmacogenetic-based warfarin dose models showed a proportion of variance ranging from 35% to 78% and an MPE ranging from -2.67 to 0.85 mg/day in the validation cohort. Overall, the model developed by Hamberg et al showed the best performance in the validation cohort (R(2) = 78%; MPE = 0.15 mg/day) with 38% of the predictions falling within 20% of observed doses. Pharmacogenetic-based algorithms provide better predictions than a fixed-dose approach, although an optimal dose algorithm has not yet been developed.