Prediction of vascular events in individuals with atherosclerotic lesions of various vascular basins: results of a 3-year prospective follow-up

Abstract

Introduction. Today, cardiovascular diseases occupy a leading position in the structure of mortality, both in Russia and throughout the world. Every year more than 17 million people die from cardiac pathology, according to the World Health Organization, an increase in morbidity and mortality is expected in the future, which is explained, first of all, by an increase in the number of patients with diabetes and obesity.Aim. Development of optimal approaches to predicting cardiovascular events and unfavorable outcomes in patients with peripheral atherosclerosis during a 3-year prospective follow-up.Materials and methods. The study included 519 patients with atherosclerotic lesions of various vascular regions, of which 360 (69.4%) were men, 159 (30.6%) were women. The average age of the examined patients was 60.0 ± 8.7 years.Results. In the course of the analysis, it was noted that a factor such as the percentage of table stenosis of the left coronary artery (p = 0.013) influenced the risk of developing non-fatal cases of heart failure in patients with peripheral atherosclerosis. With regard to the end point – fatal cases of heart failure, the following factors demonstrated their statistical significance: age of onset of arterial hypertension, years (p = 0.020); history of chronic heart failure (p = 0.020); left atrial size, mm (p = 0.025); degree of stenosis of the posterior lateral branch, % (p = 0.038); presence of atherosclerotic lesions in the region of the posterior interventricular branch (p = 0.002); number of affected vascular beds (p = 0.044).Conclusions. Using logistic regression equations, original mathematical tools have been developed to assess the risk of developing both fatal and non-fatal heart failure in patients with peripheral atherosclerosis.