Abstract
In order to effectively implement electric energy substitution (EES) and expand the electricity consumption market, it is important to analyze users' participation willingness (UPW) in EES. This paper proposed a prediction method based on alternative electricity price (AEP) probability model to estimate UPW in EES. From the perspective of comprehensive cost comparison, alternative electricity price index is introduced. Considering equipment selection preference of users, this paper establishes a probability model of alternative electricity price to calculate users' participation willingness. To give a brief example, this paper studies the case of “electricity substituting oil” in transportation field. The case study result proves that this method can effectively quantify users' participation willingness. Through sensitivity analysis, this paper clarifies the main constraints of electric energy substitution, which is of great significance to the further promotion of electric energy substitution.
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