Prediction of urban cyclists’ intentions to ride on the pedestrian lane and against the traffic flow: A sociodemographic and psychosocial approach

Abstract

Unsafe riding behaviors among urban cyclists compromise road safety and encourage a negative perception of cycling mobility. This study evaluates the influence of sociodemographic and psychosocial variables (attitude, subjective norm and perceived behavioral control) associated to the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) about cyclists’ intentions to ride on the pedestrian lane (RPL) and to ride against the traffic flow (RATF), to identify significant predictors. An online survey was applied among 200 urban cyclists (52 females and 148 males), in a mexican city with emerging cycling culture, in October 2020. A descriptive statistical analysis was conducted, and intention prediction models were built through hierarchical regression analyses. The three TPB variables were found to be the most significant predictors of the cyclists’ intentions towards RPL and RATF, above the sociodemographic variables considered. Perceived behavioral control was the strongest predictor. Findings, provide an empirical precedent in predictorś study on RPL and RATF in the context of emerging urban cycling environment. On the other hand, could guide road education policies focused on the found predictorś hierarchy. A variety of strategies could range from broad promotion of cycling mobility regulations and enforcement to awareness campaigns about the real adverse effects on safety and road coexistence, derived from RPL and RATF.