Prediction of treatment outcome in neovascular age-related macular degeneration using a novel convolutional neural network

Abstract

While prognosis and risk of progression are crucial in developing precise therapeutic strategy in neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD), limited predictive tools are available. We proposed a novel deep convolutional neural network that enables feature extraction through image and non-image data integration to seize imperative information and achieve highly accurate outcome prediction. The Heterogeneous Data Fusion Net (HDF-Net) was designed to predict visual acuity (VA) outcome (improvement ≥ 2 line or not) at 12th months after anti-VEGF treatment. A set of pre-treatment optical coherence tomography (OCT) image and non-image demographic features were employed as input data and the corresponding 12th-month post-treatment VA as the target data to train, validate, and test the HDF-Net. This newly designed HDF-Net demonstrated an AUC of 0.989 (95% CI 0.970–0.999), accuracy of 0.936 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.889–0.964], sensitivity of 0.933 (95% CI 0.841–0.974), and specificity of 0.938 (95% CI 0.877–0.969). By simulating the clinical decision process with mixed pre-treatment information from raw OCT images and numeric data, HDF-Net demonstrated promising performance in predicting individualized treatment outcome. The results highlight the potential of deep learning to simultaneously process a broad range of clinical data to weigh and leverage the complete information of the patient. This novel approach is an important step toward real-world personalized therapeutic strategy for typical nAMD.