Prediction of Total Imperviousness from Population Density and Land Use Data for Urban Areas (Case Study: South East Queensland, Australia)

Mohammad Reza Ramezani,Bofu Yu,Yahui Che

doi:10.3390/app112110044

Abstract

Total imperviousness (residential and non-residential) increases with population growth in many regions around the world. Population density has been used to predict the total imperviousness in large areas, although population size was only closely related to residential imperviousness. In this study, population density together with land use data for 154 suburbs in Southeast Queensland (SEQ) of Australia were used to develop a new model for total imperviousness estimation. Total imperviousness was extracted through linear spectral mixing analysis (LSMA) using Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS, and then separated into residential and non-residential areas based on land use data for each suburb. Regression models were developed between population density and total imperviousness, and population density and residential imperviousness. Results show that (1) LSMA approach could retrieve imperviousness accurately (RMSE < 10%), (2) linear regression models could be used to estimate both total imperviousness and residential imperviousness better than nonlinear regression models, and (3) correlation between population density and residential imperviousness was higher (R2 = 0.77) than that between population density and total imperviousness (R2 = 0.52); (4) the new model was used to predict the total imperiousness based on population density projections to 2057 for three potential urban development areas in SEQ. This research allows accurate prediction of the total impervious area from population density and service area per capital for other regions in the world.

Highlights

Published: 27 October 2021South East Queensland (SEQ) is one of the major urban living areas in Australia, in which the population is expected to grow over the few decades based on government plans
root mean square error (RMSE) of 9% and mean absolute error (MAE) of 7% demonstrated a reliable accuracy for imperviousness estimated from Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS by the fully constrained linear spectral mixture analysis (LSMA) approach in this study
This paper provides a new approach to predict total imperviousness for residential suburbs, based on the established relationship between population density and remotesensing-derived residential imperviousness and a value (M) representing overall nonresidential area per person at the suburb scale

Summary

Introduction

South East Queensland (SEQ) is one of the major urban living areas in Australia, in which the population is expected to grow over the few decades based on government plans. Queensland governments define some centers (new residential suburbs) as potential development areas (PDAs) in the SEQ region Development of the PDAs will lead to an increase in the total impervious surface area (TISA) including residential buildings and service area, e.g., commercial and industrial services, roads, and parking lots. Total imperviousness (the ratio of TISA to total area) has been shown to be a reliable metric to describe urban development [1]. Accurate estimation of total imperviousness due to population growth in the future is of great importance for developing sustainable environmental management plans

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