Prediction of top water flow rate to SAGD steam chamber and its impact on thermal efficiency

Abstract

The Guantao Formation in the Block Du 84 of the Liaohe Oilfield of Northeastern China is a super heavy oil reservoir surrounded by top water, side and bottom water. Commercial development started in 1999 using vertical well Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS), with anticipated oil recovery factor of less than 25%. To improve the ultimate oil recovery, a pilot test of SAGD as a follow-up to CSS began in 2005 using a combination of infill horizontal wells with existing vertical wells; and the commercial expansion began in 2008 as a result of the encouraging results from pilot test. The current recovery factor over the entire development area has exceeded 45% of OOIP, with the pilot test area exceeding 68% of OOIP, and the ultimate recovery factor is predicted to exceed 70%. As the steam chamber becomes more mature and continues expanding upward, the risk of communication with the top water increases. Due to high pressure (>6.0 MPa) in the top water layer, it is not practical to balance the operating pressure in the steam chamber under the current economic conditions. The early forecasting of top water flow rates is important to assess its potential impact on SAGD performance and to formulate operating strategies for the late stage of SAGD development. In this paper, a theoretical model for predicting flow rate of top water to the SAGD chamber is established based on the incorporation of fluid flow and heat transfer mechanisms in porous media in the reservoir (barrier layer) between the steam chamber and the top water. The influence of barrier layer thickness, permeability, crude oil viscosity distribution and operating pressures in the steam chamber on the flow rate of the top water are studied. The flow of the top water into the steam chamber will lower oil to steam ratio (OSR) and the recovery process may become uneconomic when top water flow rate exceeds the current steam injection rate per well pair. The presence of high-viscosity “asphalt shell” layers near the bottom of the top water has limited mitigation effect on the flow of the top water. Under current operating conditions and 3.0 MPa pressure differential between the top water layer and steam chamber, 10 m of minimum thickness of barrier layer should be maintained to effectively mitigate the risk from inflow of top water.