Abstract
Flooding of downstream agricultural fields and cities is normally caused by consecutive days of extreme precipitation in upstream areas. As climate change is widely projected to accelerate the hydrological cycle, concerns about the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation arise. The present study used Pattern Scaling coupled with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to calculate changes in multi-day extreme precipitation in the North Central Vietnam in 2050, 2070, and 2090 under three AR5’s Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Twenty long-term historical observation stations in the study area with daily data mostly date back to more than 50 years were employed and 5-day maximum total precipitation was analyzed. The results reveal an agreement among the employed GCMs on an increase in the intensity and a shortening of the return periods of extreme precipitation, with the most reinforced trend occurring under RCP8.5, followed by RCP6.0 and then RCP2.6. This indicates that the risk of associated floods is likely to increase, especially under higher RCPs. Therefore, planning and decision making of durable infrastructure along with flood mitigation strategies to cope with such events are recommended.
Highlights
Extreme precipitation (EP) is the major cause of floods, erosion and landslides, which result in severe damages to agriculture and infrastructures
Extreme precipitation increases the most under RCP8.5, followed by RCP6.0 and increases the least under RCP2.6 for all return periods. Both RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 show an upward trend throughout the projection period but the increment is steadier under the higher RCP
The projections discussed above correspond with the characteristics of the RCP pathways, which show similar levels of greenhouse gas emission in early 21st century, and the emission becomes to diverge: RCP8.5 drives a sharp increase overtime, RCP6.0 drives a moderate increase till the end of the 21st century while RCP2.6 drives a moderate increase till halfway through the century, peaks around 2050 and declines thereafter
Summary
Extreme precipitation (EP) is the major cause of floods, erosion and landslides, which result in severe damages to agriculture and infrastructures. It has been reported that during the past century, there has been a significant increase in extreme precipitation events; and more notably, in many regions, especially mid-latitude regions, increases in annual heavy precipitation events were disproportionate compared to changes in mean values (IPCC, 2013). In Germany, an analysis of precipitation observed during 1901–2000 shows that climate was getting. Climate Change-Reinforced Extreme Precipitation more extreme in the winter during this period (Tromel and Schonwiese, 2007). A similar finding was reported by Zolina et al (2008), and that a positive linear trend in heavy precipitation was found for winter and for spring and autumn since 1950. Significant increases in Evapotranspiration (ET) were observed in different regions of China in the second half of the 20th century, including its western part, the middle and lower Yangtze River basin, and its southeast coastal part (Zhao et al, 2014)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
