Prediction of the Sunspot Number with a New Model Based on the Revised Data

Abstract

Sunspot-number prediction plays a very important role in space-weather forecasts and environmental research. In 2015, the international relative sunspot-number publisher released a new version of the data. Compared with the old version, the new data changed enough to influence sunspot-prediction methods that were based on the old data. The aim of this study is to propose a new prediction method based on the new data, and improve prediction accuracy as much as possible. A modified gaussian function, which has four parameters, was used in our method to describe each single cycle. Via four relationships among the four parameters, we found the most probable values and their uncertainties for the four parameters, and then we obtained the sunspot-number variation curve and its range for Solar Cycle 24. The results showed that the peak value should be 113.3 (the real value was 116.4), at the 57th month (between the two real peak at the 39th and the 64th month). A range of peak values was also given by this method, which range from 91 (less than the real value by 25) to 134 (greater than the real value by 18).