Prediction of the Power of the Solar Panel

Abstract

The article presents the results of predicting the power at the output of the solar panel by polynomials of different degrees. The article indicates the need for solar power forecast. The article describes what factors affect the forecast of solar power at the output of the solar panel. Forecasting the amount of electricity generated by a solar power plant is primarily a prediction of the amount of solar radiation received by the solar panel, which in turn depends on environmental conditions and parameters. Data were taken from 04.05.2019 - 05.05.2019 with a discreteness of 1 minute. In order to calculate the forecast, the values of solar insolation were converted to power. The hourly curve of change of solar power with a discreteness in 1 minute is presented. A two-hour curve of the change in solar power with a resolution of 10 minutes is presented. The daily curve of change of solar power with a discreteness in 1 hour is presented. The horizon at 1 hour and 1 day was chosen for forecasting. Approximation of data by means of polynomials of various degrees is checked. The article shows graphs of changes in real and predicted values of solar power at the output of the solar panel. The graphs clearly show which method of forecasting is more accurate. The accuracy of the predicted values was assessed using the average relative error. Of all the considered methods of calculating the predicted value of the power of the solar panel, the smallest error is obtained when the data are selected for 2 hours, differ by no more than 2 times and have a discreteness of 10 minutes. The benefit of using the correction of the predicted data by the Hoyne method is checked. To predict the power of the solar panel by approximation, it is advisable to adjust the predicted data. To correct the data, it is advisable to use the method of predictor-corrector. Predictor - is the predicted value, and the corrector - is the adjusted value After calculating the power forecast at the output of solar power, an algorithm was developed with which you can calculate the predicted value of power. The developed algorithm for calculating the forecast uses the following parameters: data discreteness, the period for which the data are taken for analysis, the degree of the polynomial. First, the algorithm selects data for the selected period, selects discreteness. If you want to increase the discreteness, it averages the value. But on the basis of the selected values calculates the polynomial of the selected degree. Then, based on the calculated equation, the forecast is calculated and the predicted values are displayed in the form of a graph.