Prediction of the potential global distribution of the Asian longhorned beetle Anoplophora glabripennis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) under climate change

Abstract

AbstractThe Asian longhorned beetle (ALB) Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is an important wood‐boring pest that has caused substantial damage to broadleaf trees in Asia, North America, and Europe. We used the modelling software CLIMEX to project the potential global distribution of ALB based on both historical (1987–2016) and future (2021–2050) climate conditions. ALB has possible hosts in 37 genera, and their known distributions were incorporated into the model to assess their effect on pest distribution. Suitable regions for ALB are predicted to be widely distributed under both historical and future climate conditions, and across all continents except Antarctica. With climate change, climate suitability would increase in the regions north of 30°N and decline in most regions south of 30°N. The area of most climate‐suitable regions would be covered by potential hosts, and optimum hosts would dominate. The possibility of ALB outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere is much higher than in the Southern Hemisphere, owing to the richer abundance of hosts. These results provide theoretical guidance for developing effective ALB monitoring and mitigation measures.