Prediction of the Potential Distribution of Vaccinium uliginosum in China Based on the Maxent Niche Model

Abstract

Vaccinium uliginosum L. is a wild fruit tree, mainly distributed in the extremely cold climate region of China, such as the Greater Khingan Mountains, Lesser Khingan Mountains, and Changbai Mountains. Most fruit trees are largely unsustainable in these regions, but wild V. uliginosum thrives in the region. Therefore, it is necessary to protect the precious wild V. uliginosum resources. With the effect of global warming, the suitable habitat of V. uliginosum has also changed. A total of 287 pieces of data with 22 environmental variables were collected on the geographical distribution of wild V. uliginosum. The Maxent model was applied to predict the potential distribution of V. uliginosum in China under different climate scenarios (Socioeconomic Pathways 1-2.6 (SSP1-2.6), SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) in the current and future two periods (the 2050s and 2070s). The predicted results show that the distribution and area of the suitable area-change range is small. The results show that the cumulative contribution rates of BIO07 (annual temperature range), BIO12 (annual precipitation), and BIO10 (mean temperature of warmest quarter) reach 74.1%, indicating that temperature and precipitation are the key factors affecting the distribution of V. uliginosum. This study can provide a reference for relevant departments to take conservation measures with respect to climate change and the adaptation of V. uliginosum to habitat changes.