Prediction of the mitotic index and preoperative risk stratification of gastrointestinal stromal tumors with CT radiomic features.

Abstract

The objective is to develop a mitotic prediction model and preoperative risk stratification nomogram for gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) based on computed tomography (CT) radiomic features. A total of 267 GIST patients from 2009.07 to 2015.09 were retrospectively collected and randomly divided into (6:4) training cohort and validation cohort. The 2D-tumor region of interest was delineated from the portal-phase images on contrast-enhanced (CE)-CT, and radiomic features were extracted. Lasso regression method was used to select valuable features to establish a radiomic model for predicting mitotic index in GIST. Finally, the nomogram of preoperative risk stratification was constructed by combining the radiomic features and clinical risk factors. Four radiomic features closely related to the level of mitosis were obtained, and a mitotic radiomic model was constructed. The area under the curve (AUC) of the radiomics signature model used to predict mitotic levels in training and validation cohorts (training cohort AUC = 0.752; 95% confidence interval [95%CI] 0.674-0.829; validation cohort AUC = 0.764; 95% CI 0.667-0.862). Finally, the preoperative risk stratification nomogram combining radiomic features was equivalent to the clinically recognized gold standard AUC (0.965 vs. 0.983) (p = 0.117). The Cox regression analysis found that the nomogram score was one of the independent risk factors for the long-term prognosis of the patients. Preoperative CT radiomic features can effectively predict the level of mitosis in GIST, and combined with preoperative tumor size, accurate preoperative risk stratification can be performed to guide clinical decision-making and individualized treatment.