Prediction of the Midlatitude Response to Strong Madden‐Julian Oscillation Events on S2S Time Scales

Abstract

AbstractThe Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) forces strong variations in extratropical atmospheric circulations that have important implications for subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) prediction. In particular, certain MJO phases are characterized by a consistent modulation of geopotential height in the North Pacific and adjacent regions across different MJO events. Until recently, only limited research has examined the relationship between these robust MJO tropical‐extratropical teleconnections and model prediction skill. In this study, reanalysis data and numerical forecast model ensemble hindcasts are used to demonstrate that robust teleconnections in specific MJO phases and time lags are also characterized by excellent agreement in the prediction of geopotential height anomalies across model ensemble members at forecast leads of up to 3 weeks. These periods of enhanced prediction capabilities extend the possibility for skillful extratropical weather prediction beyond traditional 10–13 day limits.