Prediction of the Long-Term Potential Distribution of Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.) under Climate Change

Ya Zou,Linghong Chen,Shixiang Zong,Xue Li,Xuezhen Ge,Siwei Guo,Tao Wang,Linjing Zhang

doi:10.3390/f11010005

Abstract

The poplar and willow borer, Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.), is a severe worldwide quarantine pest that causes great economic, social, and ecological damage in Europe, North America, and Asia. CLIMEX4.0.0 was used to study the likely impact of climate change on the potential global distribution of C. lapathi based on existing (1987–2016) and predicted (2021–2040, 2041–2080, and 2081–2100) climate data. Future climate data were simulated based on global climate models from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the RCP4.5 projection. The potential distribution of C. lapathi under historical climate conditions mainly includes North America, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Future global warming may cause a northward shift in the northern boundary of potential distribution. The total suitable area would increase by 2080–2100. Additionally, climatic suitability would change in large regions of the northern hemisphere and decrease in a small region of the southern hemisphere. The projected potential distribution will help determine the impacts of climate change and identify areas at risk of pest invasion in the future. In turn, this will help design and implement effective prevention measures for expanding pest populations, using natural enemies, microorganisms, and physical barriers in very favorable regions to impede the movement and oviposition of C. lapathi.

Highlights

The poplar and willow borer Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) is believed to be native to temperate Eurasia [1]
Climatic suitability would clearly change in large regions of the northern hemisphere and decrease in a small region of the southern hemisphere
The total suitable area would increase by the end of the century

Summary

Introduction

The poplar and willow borer Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) is believed to be native to temperate Eurasia [1]. Due to its strong adaptability and the wide distribution of its host species, C. lapathi has a marked ability to colonize and spread. The weevil is widely distributed throughout the Palearctic region, from Europe to Japan, and is still expanding [1,4]. As a worldwide quarantine pest, the long-distance transmission of C. lapathi is mainly dependent on the transfer of nursery stock harboring insects, rather than its comparatively weak active dispersal ability. In 1984, 1996, and 2005, C. lapathi was included in the list of Forestry

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