Prediction of the flooding area of the northeastern Caspian Sea from satellite images

Abstract

Studying the dynamic changes in the coastline of the northeastern Caspian Sea is significant since the level of the Caspian is unstable, and the coastline change can cause enormous damage to the ecology, economy, and population of the coastal part of Kazakhstan. In this work, we use remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies to study the changes in the coastline of the northeastern Caspian Sea and predict the extent of flooding with increasing water levels. The proposed methodology for creating dynamic maps can be used to monitor the coastline and forecast the extent of flooding in the area. As a result of this work, the main factors affecting changes in the coastline were identified. After analyzing the water level data from 1988 to 2019, it was revealed that the rise in water level was observed from 1980 to 1995. The maximum sea level rise was recorded at −26.04 m. After that, the sea level began to fall, and between 1996 and 2009, there were no significant changes; the water level fluctuated with an average of −27.18 m. Then, a map of the water level dynamics in the Caspian Sea from 1988 to 2019 was compiled. According to the dynamics map, water level rise and significant coastal retreat were revealed, especially in the northern part of the Caspian Sea and the northern and southern parts of Sora Kaydak. The method for predicting the estimated flooding area was described. As a result, based on a single map, the flooding area of the northeast coast was predicted. A comparative analysis of Landsat and SRTM data is presented.