Prediction of the Development of Severe Sepsis Among Children With Intestinal Failure and Fever Presenting to the Emergency Department.

Abstract

Children with intestinal failure (IF) and fever are frequently bacteremic, but risk factors for development of sepsis in this population are not well delineated. Our objective was to determine what clinical factors available on arrival to the emergency department (ED), including commonly used vital sign thresholds, predicted the subsequent development of severe sepsis in children with IF and fever. This was a retrospective cohort study of children younger than 21 years with IF presenting to a tertiary care ED between 2010 and 2016 with fever who did not have hypotensive septic shock on arrival. The primary outcome was development of severe sepsis within 24 hours of ED arrival, as defined by consensus criteria. We identified predictors of severe sepsis using both univariate and multivariate models and calculated the test characteristics of 3 different sets of vital sign criteria in determining risk of severe sepsis. In 26 (9.4%) of 278 encounters, the patient developed severe sepsis within 24 hours of arrival to the ED; 3 were excluded due to hypotensive shock on arrival. Predictors of severe sepsis included history of intestinal pseudo-obstruction (odds ratio, 8.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.3-30.2) and higher initial temperature (odds ratio, 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-2.3). The 3 sets of vital sign criteria had widely varying sensitivity and specificity in identifying development of severe sepsis. History of intestinal pseudo-obstruction and higher fever predicted increased risk of severe sepsis among children with IF and fever presenting to an ED. No single set of vital sign criteria had both high sensitivity and specificity for this diagnosis.