Abstract
Covid-19 has brought about major changes for all people in various countries, for example creating vaccines, wearing masks and predicting the predictive state of death that will occur. In this paper, we will predict cases of covid-19 deaths using data taken from the worldometer website by taking data on daily covid-19 deaths worldwide in the period January 23rd- April 16th, 2020. Then the data is processed using the Poisson process that has been transformed using SPSS computer programming, namely the daily mortality rate in the period January 23rd - March 16th, 2020 using descriptive statistics, it was found that the death rate was 4 people in one day, then the Kolmogorov test followed the Poisson distribution, because it met the requirements for the P-value. value . Furthermore, it is calculated by using the death process, which is the chance of an event with the chance of death of all the corona suspects in the next 5 days, namely April 21 because the data has been transformed, so . the chance that no one will die within the next 45 days, namely April 30th, 2020 is close to. In the period of January 23rd - April 16th, 2020 using descriptive statistics, it was found that the death rate was 6 people in one day, then the Kolmogorov test was carried out with the results following the Poisson distribution, because it fulfilled the requirements for a P-value . Furthermore, it is calculated using the death process, which is the chance of an event with the chance of death of all the corona suspects in the next 5 days, namely April 21st, 2020 because the data has been transformed, so . The chance that no one will die within the next 45 days, namely May 31, is close to .
Highlights
The Covid-19 virus outbreak in various countries is in the spotlight of the world, because it has claimed many lives and caused difficulties in facing economic demands that must be met on a daily basis, one of the main treatments in dealing with the Covid-19 virus is medical personnel who are at the forefront they have become victims of Covid-19, and all countries have made various efforts to create a vaccine that aims to eradicate the Covid-19 virus
It is calculated by using the death process, which is the chance of an event with the chance of death of all the corona suspects in the 5 days, namely April 21 because the data has been transformed, so e−0.9 = 0.406. the chance that no one will die within the 45 days, namely April 30th, 2020 is close to e0 = 1
In the period of January 23rd - April 16th, 2020 using descriptive statistics, it was found that the death rate was 6 people in one day, the Kolmogorov test was carried out with the results following the Poisson distribution, because it fulfilled the requirements for a P-value > 5
Summary
The Covid-19 virus outbreak in various countries is in the spotlight of the world, because it has claimed many lives and caused difficulties in facing economic demands that must be met on a daily basis, one of the main treatments in dealing with the Covid-19 virus is medical personnel who are at the forefront they have become victims of Covid-19, and all countries have made various efforts to create a vaccine that aims to eradicate the Covid-19 virus This virus originated in Wuhan, China in one of the traditional markets, until recently as of November 21st, 2020, about 57 million of people worldwide had been infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARScoV-2), and about 1.4 million had died from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (Grassin-Delyle et al, 2020). The researchers wanted to estimate the daily case data of deaths from the covid-19 virus in the world taken from worldometer site data using only the pure death model in the average or mortality rate in one day
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