Prediction of the Amplitude of Sunspot Cycle 23

Abstract

A few prediction methods have been developed using the ‘precursor’ techniques and are found to be successful. On the basis of geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding cycle, we have established an expression which predicts the maximum annual mean sunspot number in cycle 23 to be 166.2. This indicates that cycle 23 would be a highly active and historic cycle. The average geomagnetic activity aa index during the ascending phase of cycle 23 would be about 24.9, comparable to 22.2 and 24.8 in cycles 21 and 22, respectively. This further indicates that during the ascending phase of cycle 23 energetic two-ribbon flares will be produced so as to give rise to strong proton events.