Prediction of Sudden Cardiac Arrest After Alcohol Septal Ablation for Hypertrophic Obstructive Cardiomyopathy: ASA-SCARRE Risk Score

Abstract

This study aimed to derive a new score, the Alcohol Septal Ablation-Sudden Cardiac ARREst (ASA-SCARRE) risk score, that can be easily used to evaluate the risk of sudden cardiac arrest events (sudden cardiac death, resuscitation, or appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator discharge) after alcohol septal ablation (ASA) in patients with hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy. We analyzed 1,834 patients from the Euro-ASA registry (49% men, mean age 57 ± 14years) who were followed up for 5.0 ± 4.3years (9,202 patient-years) after ASA. A total of 65 patients (3.5%) experienced sudden cardiac arrest events, translating to 0.72 events per 100 patient-years. The independent predictors of sudden cardiac arrest events were septum thickness before ASA (hazard ratio 1.09 per 1mm, 95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.14, p <0.001) and left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT) gradient at the last clinical checkup (hazard ratio 1.01 per 1mm Hg, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.02, p=0.002). The following ASA-SCARRE risk scores were derived and independently predicted long-term risk of sudden cardiac arrest events: "0" for both LVOT gradient <30mmHg and baseline septum thickness <20mm; "1" for LVOT gradient ≥30mm Hg or baseline septum thickness ≥20mm; and "2" for both LVOT gradient ≥30mm Hg and baseline septum thickness ≥20mm. The C statistic of the ASA-SCARRE risk score was 0.684 (SE 0.030). In conclusion, the ASA-SCARRE risk score may be a useful and easily available clinical tool to predict risk of sudden cardiac arrest events after ASA in patients with hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy.