Prediction of successful guidewire crossing of below-the-knee chronic total occlusions using a Japanese scoring system

Abstract

ObjectiveTo develop a scoring system that can adequately predict a successful guidewire crossing (S-GC) of below-the-knee (BTK) chronic total occlusions (CTOs) in angiographic evaluation. MethodsA retrospective, multicenter, nonrandomized study examined 448 consecutive BTK CTOs in 299 patients treated with endovascular therapy in seven Japanese medical centers from April 2012 to April 2020. The cohort was classified into two groups: an S-GC group and a failed guidewire crossing group. ResultsThe final logistic regression model created by a backward stepwise multivariate logistic regression model included five variables: “No outflow of the target vessel,” “CTO length ≥200 mm,” “Reference vessel diameter <2.0 mm,” “Calcification at the proximal entry point,” and “Blunt type at entry point.” Optimisms were adjusted using 1000 bootstrap samples with replacement and candidate's risk score models developed according to optimism-adjusted correlation coefficients of risk factors. Choosing the best model as the Japanese-BTK (J-BTK) CTO score by comparing the optimism-adjusted area under receiver-operating characteristic curves it was decided to assign one point to “Blunt type at the proximal entry point,” one point to “Calcification at the proximal entry point,” one point to “Reference vessel diameter <2.0 mm,” one point to “CTO length ≥200 mm,” and two points to “No outflow of the target vessel.” This rule was then used to categorize BTK CTOs into four grades with varying probabilities of S-GC: grade A (J-BTK CTO score of 0 and 1), grade B (score of 2 and 3), grade C (score of 4 and 5), and grade D (score of 6). Rates of S-GC in each grade (grades A, B, C, and D) were 97.3%, 76.8%, 19.3%, and 0%, respectively. Lesions categorized as grade C or D have a lower chance of S-GC. Internal validation was performed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = .99). ConclusionsThe J-BTK CTO score predicts the probability of an S-GC of BTK CTOs and stratifies the difficulty of endovascular therapy for BTK CTOs in angiographic evaluation.