Prediction of Student Performance Based on Behavior using E-Learning During the Covid-19 Pandemic using Support Vector Machine

Abstract

The COVID-19 crisis has profoundly impacted many sectors globally, including education, necessitating the shift from traditional in-person learning to independent or online learning through various digital platforms. The integrity of e-learning can be ensured by leveraging e-learning behavioral data. The objective of this research is to develop a novel data model to navigate the educational challenges of the COVID-19 era. Previous studies employed the Support Vector Machine (SVM) technique to predict student performance in an e-learning setting, yet they failed to contrast different SVM kernels and their outcomes. In contrast, this study uses SVM and compares three types of kernels: Radial, Polynomial, and Linear. The dataset used for this research was procured from X-API-Edu-Data. The SVM technique was utilized in a unique way to process the data, which comprised 17 variables and 40 observations. Notably, all 17 variables were character variables, with only four being numeric. Two variables, Raisedhands and Discussion, were selected for analysis due to their key role in effective learning and their association with student performance in an e-learning environment. The evaluation of the model was performed using the Topic variable, which represents the subjects in the dataset. The research findings revealed a marked improvement in accuracy compared to earlier studies. Among the three SVM kernels tested - Radial, Polynomial, and Linear, the Polynomial kernel demonstrated superior accuracy with a score of 0.9979. Therefore, the Polynomial model was deemed most appropriate for analyzing the Topic variable. In conclusion, the study indicates that the application of the e-learning method, specifically during the COVID-19 pandemic, proved highly effective in forecasting student performance.