Prediction of Stuck Pipe Incidents Using Models Powered by Deep Learning and Machine Learning

Abstract

Abstract One of the most common issues faced in the Drilling industry is a Stuck Pipe situation. Stuck Pipes lead to huge losses in cost, energy and productive time. The objective of this paper is to predict stuck pipe incidents prior to their occurrence by harnessing the power of machine learning and deep learning models. Stuck incidents are some of the most difficult and challenging situations. The proposed method uses a two-step model and available historical data from prior drilling operations to predict the occurrence of such an incident well in advance so that it can be avoided. The first step of the model performs time series predictions using a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) with Walk Forward Validation. The second part of the model uses a Random Forest Classifier to classify the predictions from the previous step and determine if a stuck situation is likely. The classification model is pre-trained using historical drilling operational data collected from old wells. It is possible to determine how far back the model should look at the data and how far ahead it should predict. For the purpose of this paper, the model looks back 5000 timesteps and predicted 3000 timesteps ahead. One timestep is 2 seconds in this case. This model would be able to reduce nonproductive time, and help make drilling operations cleaner, faster and greener. The biggest benefit of such a model is that it can learn on the go and would not require manual intervention. Also, the model can upgrade and modify itself to changes in the drilling operations.