Prediction of stasis and crisis in the Bak–Sneppen model

Abstract

Several recurrences in the dynamics of an individual species in the one-dimensional Bak–Sneppen model are analysed. The distributions of the time intervals for stasis and crisis are separately calculated together with the respective hazard functions for the transition between them. The predictabilities of when a crisis will start and when it will conclude are evaluated by using one- and two-parameter strategies and the information is represented in standard error diagrams.