Prediction of spring precipitation in China using a downscaling approach

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to use a statistical downscaling model to predict spring precipitation over China based on a large-scale circulation simulation using Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) General Circulation Models (GCMs) from 1960 to 2001. A singular value decomposition regression analysis was performed to establish the link between the spring precipitation and the large-scale variables, particularly for the geopotential height at 500 hPa and the sea-level pressure. The DEMETER GCM predictors were determined on the basis of their agreement with the reanalysis data for specific domains. This downscaling scheme significantly improved the predictability compared with the raw DEMETER GCM output for both the independent hindcast test and the cross-validation test. For the independent hindcast test, multi-year average spatial correlation coefficients (CCs) increased by at least ~30 % compared with the DEMETER GCMs’ precipitation output. In addition, the root mean-square errors (RMSEs) decreased more than 35 % compared with the raw DEMETER GCM output. For the cross-validation test, the spatial CCs increased to greater than 0.9 for most of the individual years, and the temporal CCs increased to greater than 0.3 (95 % confidence level) for most regions in China from 1960 to 2001. The RMSEs decreased significantly compared with the raw output. Furthermore, the preceding predictor, the Arctic Oscillation, increased the predicted skill of the downscaling scheme during the spring of 1963.