Prediction of Southwest Monsoon Pattern of Saurashtra Region (India) using Customized Indigenous Method

Abstract

India is an agriculture-based country and the agriculture product is highly influenced by the Southwest monsoon. Forecasting of monsoon is of prime importance for planning to select appropriate Kharif crops and their varieties to minimize crop losses. Many Indian scientists have proposed sciencebased techniques while local traditional farmers have used indigenous methods to forecast weather conditions and predict a likely behaviour of the Southwest monsoon. However, predicting the Southwest monsoon pattern remains the most challenging task till date. In the present study, a methodology is developed to predict the Southwest monsoon for sub-regions of Saurashtra (India) based on the observation of some of the local factors consisting of observation of local weather, type of wind and its direction, heat waves, astronomical parameters and cloud type pattern. The predicted average rainfall was found 860mm which is nearly 20% less (1055mm) for the year 2019.The results show that the methodology under predicted the rainfall and provided consistent outcomes. It performed well in R3 sub-region and poor in R5 subregion. It will be useful to the farmers of the study region in planning and selection of appropriate crops and its variables at a definite sowing time to secure Kharif production.