Abstract
Accelerating sea level rise is an indicator of global warming and poses a threat to low-lying places and coastal countries. This study aims to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to the time series obtained from the TOPEX and Jason series of satellite radar altimetries of the South China Sea from the year 2008 to 2015. With altimetric measurements taken in a 10-day repeat cycle, monthly averages of the satellite altimetry measurements were taken to compose the data set used in the study. SARIMA models were then tried and fitted to the time series in order to find the best-fit model. Results show that the SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model best fits the time series and was used to forecast the values for January 2016 to December 2016. The 12-month forecast using SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 shows that the sea level gradually increases from January to September 2016, and decreases until December 2016.
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