Prediction of Slow-Moving Landslide Mobility Due to Rainfall Using a Two-Wedges Model

Antonello Troncone,Enrico Conte,Andrea Parise,Luigi Pugliese

doi:10.3390/w13152030

Abstract

In the present study, the landslides cyclically reactivated by water-table oscillations due to rainfall are dealt with. The principal kind of motion that usually characterizes such landslides is a slide with rather small velocity. As another feature, soil deformations are substantially accumulated inside a narrow shear zone situated below the landslide body so that the latter approximately slides rigidly. Within this framework, a new approach is developed in this paper to predict the mobility of this type of landslides due to rainfall. To this end, a two-wedges model is used to schematize the moving soil mass. Some analytical solutions are derived to link rain recordings with water-table fluctuations and in turn to landslide displacements. A well-documented landslide frequently activated by rainfall is studied to check the forecasting capacity of the proposed method.

Highlights

IntroductionThe proposed solution is simple to use and necessitates few data as input, most of the groundwater level fluctuations are evaluated and the landslide velocity predicted
A further common characteristic of such landslides is that the soil strains are usually located inside a narrow shear band situated at the base of the unstable soil mass in which the shear strength of the soil is under residual conditions owing to the important gained deformations [2]
A two-wedges model bounded at the bottom by a bi-planar failure surface is employed to schematize the unstable soil mass

Summary

Introduction

The proposed solution is simple to use and necessitates few data as input, most of the groundwater level fluctuations are evaluated and the landslide velocity predicted. The proposed solution is simple to use and necessitates few data as input, most of which ones are evaluated calibration procedure After this whereas calibration, method ones may are determined by using meansaof traditional geotechnical tests, thethe remaining be to using perform a prediction of futureAfter displacements of a given landslide body areadopted evaluated a calibration procedure. Method ones may are determined by using meansaof traditional geotechnical tests, thethe remaining be to using perform a prediction of futureAfter displacements of a given landslide body areadopted evaluated a calibration procedure This calibration, the method may be based on to weather forecast. Adopted perform a prediction of future displacements of a given landslide body based on weather forecast

Method of Analysis

Application of the Proposed Approach

Cerda landslide:

Section A-A’

Horizontal

Conclusions