Prediction of Shrinking Dwellings in Rural Areas : Application of Dyna-CLUE Model

Abstract

Paying attention to the rural hollowing in South Korea, this study predicted shrinking dwellings in rural areas, and systematically analyzed regional disparities with regard to such shrinking dwellings. This study utilized D yna-CLU E Model (Dynamic Conversion o f Land-U se a nd its Effects), which is o ne of the Cellular Automata models. Based on the theory of residential location, this study assumed that twenty percent of the rural dwellings will disappear in the future. The results showed very interesting facts. Myeon areas, which have more rural characteristics, included many more shrinking dwellings than Eup areas. Also, there were many shrinking dwellings in Gyeongsangbuk-do and Gangwon-do Province, which are traditionally depressed regions. The results unveiled a huge regional disparity and it is remarkable that the different analytical criteria between area standard and ratio standard had different results. Especially, in addition to the traditional backward regions, some of the rural areas located within certain metropolitan areas were predicted to have shrinking dwellings. Thus, it is a reasonable idea that the rural areas in metropolitan areas are no longer safe from extinction. In the future, based on the results of this study, development of differentiated policy options are needed according to regional circumstances, so as to cope with the rural hollowing.