Prediction of Short-Term Mortality of Cardiac Care Unit Patients Using Image-Transformed ECG Waveforms

Abstract

The early detection of cardiac disease is important because the disease can lead to sudden death and poor prognosis. Electrocardiograms (ECG) are used to screen for cardiac diseases and are useful for the early detection and determination of treatment strategies. However, the ECG waveforms of cardiac care unit (CCU) patients with severe cardiac disease are often complicated by comorbidities and patient conditions, making it difficult to predict the severity of further cardiac disease. Therefore, this study predicts the short-term prognosis of CCU patients to detect further deterioration in CCU patients at an early stage. The ECG data (II, V3, V5, aVR induction) of CCU patients were converted to image data. The transformed ECG images were used to predict short-term prognosis with a two-dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN). The prediction accuracy was 77.3%. Visualization by GradCAM showed that the CNN tended to focus on the shape and regularity of waveforms, such as heart failure and myocardial infarction. These results suggest that the proposed method may be useful for short-term prognosis prediction using the ECG waveforms of CCU patients. The proposed method could be used to determine the treatment strategy and choose the intensity of treatment after admission to the CCU.