Abstract
The estimation of shoreline change as well as sediment transport at a specified site can be reliably made with the help of corresponding numerical models that are run with the help of historical wave data generated using windwave models based on the input of past wind conditions. It is well known that the magnitude and behavior of historical wind and waves would not remain same in future as a result of the climate change induced by global warming. (Komar et al., 2010). In this light the present study attempts to understand what happens if future wind and waves are generated using regional climate models (RCMs) and the shoreline change and sediment transport is determined on that basis instead of historical wind and wave data. Toward this we have considered there different types of shorelines, namely (a) an uninterrupted coastal stretch, (b) the coast interrupted by an artificial structure and (c) the coast interrupted by natural features. This study goes beyond an earlier one (Rajasree et al., 2016) in which only case (a) was discussed and where coastal vulnerability was not assessed.
Highlights
The estimation of shoreline change as well as sediment transport at a specified site can be reliably made with the help of corresponding numerical models that are run with the help of historical wave data generated using windwave models based on the input of past wind conditions
The numerical modeling typically showed that at the port site the rise of 29% in the annual mean significant wave height over a period of 36 years could increase the net sediment transport by 109 %, calling for revised sediment transport strategies in future
The wind input for this purpose was extracted from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) South Asia project forming part of Climate Model InterComparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP-5)
Summary
The estimation of shoreline change as well as sediment transport at a specified site can be reliably made with the help of corresponding numerical models that are run with the help of historical wave data generated using windwave models based on the input of past wind conditions. Was found that at all sites the existing sediment transport would increase in future and the rates of shoreline shifts as well as that of accretion and erosion would accelerate. The ANN predicted smaller rates than the numerical model but higher than the satellite imageries.
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