Prediction of Shanghai Electric Power Carbon Emissions Based on Improved STIRPAT Model

Abstract

Energy is the bridge connecting the economy and the environment and electric energy is an important guarantee for social production. In order to respond to the national dual-carbon goals, a new power system is being constructed. Effective carbon emission forecasts of power energy are essential to achieve a significant guarantee for low carbon and clean production of electric power energy. We analyzed the influencing factors of carbon emissions, such as population, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), urbanization rate, industrial structure, energy consumption, energy structure, regional electrification rate, and degree of opening to the outside world. The original Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model was improved, and the above influencing factors were incorporated into the model for modeling analysis. The ridge regression algorithm was adopted to analyze the biased estimation of historical data. The carbon emission prediction model of Shanghai electric power and energy based on elastic relationship was established. According to the “14th Five-Year” development plan for the Shanghai area, we set up the impact factor forecast under different scenarios to substitute into the forecast models. The new model can effectively assess the carbon emissions of the power sector in Shanghai in the future.