Abstract
Marker selection (MS) and doubled-haploid (DH) technologies have the potential to reduce the time taken to breed new cereal cultivars. However, a limiting factor is the potential increased genetic drift. The aim of this study was to design and test a genetic model for predicting the sample sizes needed to maintain genetic variation among DH plants following marker selection. The model estimates the amount of the genome that is fixed during the production of DH populations of a given size using a given number of markers. To test the model, doubled-haploids were produced from wheat plants selected for three PCR-based markers. When the genetic variation of the DH population (108 plants), produced from 15 selected F2 plants homozygous at three loci, was compared to the genetic variation of an unselected F3 population (200 plants), five of the six measured quantitative traits were identical and normally distributed. This model should prove to be a valid breeding tool, allowing a breeder to apply MS to a breeding programme and estimate the minimum DH population sizes required for minimal loss of genetic variation through genetic drift.
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