Prediction of ROI Achievements and Potential Maximum Profit on Spot Bitcoin Rupiah Trading Using K-means Clustering and Patterned Dataset Model

Abstract

Listen

Translate article

Since Satoshi Nakamoto first proposed the idea of bitcoin in 2009, the cryptocurrency and prediction methods for it have grown and changed exceptionally quickly. The Patterned Dataset Model was a valuable tool in earlier studies to explain how changes in the price of Bitcoin affect the movements of other cryptocurrencies in a digital trading market. Three different kinds of datasets are generated by this model: patterned datasets under full conditions, patterned datasets under dropping prices (Crash), and patterned datasets under rising prices (Moon). The K-means approach was then used to cluster these three datasets. Specifically, each dataset was split into two clusters, and the clustering score was determined by utilizing eight unique clustering metrics. Consequently, the best clustering score was found in the patterned dataset in the crash situation. Additionally, from 2022 to 2024, the raw data from this crash-condition-patterned dataset is used to determine the possibility of reaching maximum profit and return on investment (ROI) daily and monthly. According to the calculation results, the range computed over the course of a whole month (30 to 31 days) is significantly larger than the daily range (24 hours multiplied by one month), which represents the most significant profit and ROI attained before the emergence of the first diamond crash level. This research also covers the application of a deep learning model to forecast patterned datasets for crash scenarios that may occur many days in advance. The ConvLSTM2D Model performs better in predicting pattern dataset values for the subsequent crash scenario, according to the hyperparameter comparison between the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) Model and the 2D Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Model.