Prediction of reliability and public safety from covered rates using time series modeling for distribution systems

Abstract

The overhead distribution system has been constructed using mainly bare wires, but the bare wire is not insulated. Covered conductors used in overhead lines have achieved positive results during the recent year. For overhead distribution systems, the reliability of covered overhead lines could potentially be improved using various alternative technologies. The reliability index is a time series to be observed and collected per year in distribution systems. In addition, another time series is still to be concerned about the public safety on the occurred number of public received electric shocks per year in Taiwan Power Company (TPC). This paper tries to study both worthy of discussion on the effect of the reliability and the public life safety for distribution systems using covered conductors. The covered rate (CR) is the ratio of the line length using covered conductors to the total line length in a distribution system. The another purpose is to focus on how to predict the reliability and the public safety from covered rates using time series modeling in model-building process. This paper focuses on how to forecast the reliability indices and public safety on covered rates using two regression models which are logistic regression and dynamic regression models. The dynamic regression model is to combine the logistic regression model with time series errors in autoregressive-moving average analysis process. Results of the fitted regression models, the logistic regression and dynamic regression models, with the square of the correlation are presented from TPC. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.