Abstract
BackgroundTo investigate the risk factors and construct a logistic model and an extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model to compare the predictive performances for readmission in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) patients within one year.MethodsIn total, 636 patients with AECOPD were recruited and divided into readmission group (n = 449) and non-readmission group (n = 187). Backward stepwise regression method was used to analyze the risk factors for readmission. Data were divided into training set and testing set at a ratio of 7:3. Variables with statistical significance were included in the logistic model and variables with P < 0.1 were included in the XGBoost model, and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted.ResultsPatients with acute exacerbations within the previous 1 year [odds ratio (OR) = 4.086, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.723–6.133, P < 0.001), long-acting β agonist (LABA) application (OR = 4.550, 95% CI 1.587–13.042, P = 0.005), inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) application (OR = 0.227, 95% CI 0.076–0.672, P = 0.007), glutamic-pyruvic transaminase (ALT) level (OR = 0.985, 95% CI 0.971–0.999, P = 0.042), and total CAT score (OR = 1.091, 95% CI 1.048–1.136, P < 0.001) were associated with the risk of readmission. The AUC value of the logistic model was 0.743 (95% CI 0.692–0.795) in the training set and 0.699 (95% CI 0.617–0.780) in the testing set. The AUC value of XGBoost model was 0.814 (95% CI 0.812–0.815) in the training set and 0.722 (95% CI 0.720–0.725) in the testing set.ConclusionsThe XGBoost model showed a better predictive value in predicting the risk of readmission within one year in the AECOPD patients than the logistic regression model. The findings of our study might help identify patients with a high risk of readmission within one year and provide timely treatment to prevent the reoccurrence of AECOPD.
Highlights
To investigate the risk factors and construct a logistic model and an extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model to compare the predictive performances for readmission in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) patients within one year
Risk factors of readmission in patients with AECOPD within one year Variables with statistical significance in comparisons of the baseline data were included in the multivariate logistic regression analysis
In the current study, we constructed two models to predict the risk of readmission within one year in the AECOPD patients based on the predictors including acute exacerbation within the previous 1 year, Long-acting β agonist (LABA), inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) application, Glutamic-pyruvic transaminase (ALT) level and the total COPD assessment test (CAT) score
Summary
To investigate the risk factors and construct a logistic model and an extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model to compare the predictive performances for readmission in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) patients within one year. Acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) refers to the aggravation of respiratory symptoms in patients, which is the main reason for hospitalization and medical expenditure of COPD patients [1, 4]. AECOPD accelerate the progress of the disease, reduce the quality of life of patients and increase the risk of death [7]. Identification of patients with high risk of AECOPD and readmission and timely interventions to reduce the incidence of AECOPD and readmission are of great clinical significance for improving the prognosis of COPD patients and delaying the progression of the disease
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