Prediction of Rainfall and Water Discharge in The Jagir River Surabaya with Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM)

Abstract

AbstractFloods can occur at any time if the amount of river water discharge and rainfall intensity tends to be high, so preparations and ways of handling are needed to anticipate flooding quickly, precisely, and accurately for the Surabaya City Public Works Service. One of the steps to predict and analyze the status of the flood disaster alert level is to calculate predictions based on rainfall and the amount of river water discharge. This study uses the Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm to predict using a time series dataset of rainfall and river water discharge in the Jagir River, Surabaya. This data is used to make predictions with the proportion of 70% training data and 30% testing data. Data normalization is performed in intervals of 0 and 1 using a min-max scaler and activated using ReLU (Rectified Linear Unit) and Adam Optimizer. The process continues by repeating the process to enter iterations, or epochs until it reaches the specified epoch (n). The data is then normalized to their original values and visualized. The model was evaluated and produced acceptable performance evaluation results for the rainfall variable, namely at epoch (n) = 75 for training data, namely a score of 0.054 for MAE and 0.099 for RMSE. In contrast, data testing was given a score of 0.041 for MAE and 0.091 for RMSE. As for the water discharge variable, the performance evaluation shows the difference between the training and testing data. Results of training data MAE = 11.10 and RMSE=18RMSE =18.61.61 at epoch (n) = 150. Results of data testing MAE = 11.37 and RMSE = 21.08 at epoch (n) = 100. These results indicate an anomaly that needs to be discussed in further research.