Prediction of prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Rwanda using the metropolis-hasting sampling.

Angélique Dukunde ,Juma Kasozi,Joseph Nzabanita,Jean Marie Ntaganda

doi:10.4314/ahs.v21i2.28

Angélique Dukunde , Juma Kasozi + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.4314/ahs.v21i2.28

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Abstract

In this work, we predict the prevalence of type 2 diabetes among adult Rwandan people. We used the Metropolis-Hasting method that involved calculating the metropolis ratio. The data are those reported by World Health Organiation in 2015. Considering Suffering from diabetes, Overweight, Obesity, Dead and other subject as states of mathematical model, the transition matrix whose elements are probabilities is generated using Metropolis-Hasting sampling. The numerical results show that the prevalence of type 2 diabetes increases from 2.8% in 2015 to reach 12.65% in 2020 and to 22.59% in 2025. Therefore, this indicates the urgent need of prevention by Rwandan health decision makers who have to play their crucial role in encouraging for example physical activity, regular checkups and sensitization of the masses.

Highlights

Diabetes mellitus commonly refers to as diabetes, is a group of diseases that affect how the body uses blood sugar known as glucose
Materials and Method Diabetes had been measured using different biomarkers like Fasting Plasma Glucose (FPG), 2- hour oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT), and/or Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), which is the form of a blood pigment that carries oxygen bound to glucose
Metropolis-Hasting method can predict multiple stages of diseases in medicine. This is supported by the prediction of type 2 diabetes in Rwanda

Summary

Introduction

Diabetes mellitus commonly refers to as diabetes, is a group of diseases that affect how the body uses blood sugar known as glucose It is a non communicable disease (NCD) and chronic disease caused by inherited and/or acquired deficiency in production of insulin by the pancreas, or by the ineffectiveness of the insulin produced. This deficiency damages many of the body systems, in particular the blood vessels and nerves. Some of its symptoms include frequent urination and excessive drinking. Others are increased hunger, unexplained weight loss, fatigue, irritability, blurred vision, slow-healing sores, frequent infections, such as gums or skin infections and vaginal infections.

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