Prediction of present and future spread of Adenocarpus complicatus (L.) Gay species according to climate variables

Abstract

Analyzing how the vegetative material, which is the most important design element of Turkey and the most important design element of the Landscape Architecture profession, will be affected by climate change, is of great importance in order to plan the future use of these species in planting studies. The article consists of two main sections. Firstly, the presence data of Adenocarpus complicatus (L.) Gay and WorldClim 2.1 version of 19 bioclimatic variables at 2.5 minutes (approximately 20 km2) spatial resolution were used to estimate the potential distribution area of the species in today's conditions. In the next stage, in order to determine how the range of the species will be affected by climate change, the 6th IPCC report was created based on the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate change model, which is one of the paired model comparison Project (CMIP6) models. The potential distribution area of the species for the periods 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 was modeled according to the SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 scenarios. In addition, the spatial and spatial differences between the present and future distribution areas of the species were revealed by analysis of change. According to the findings, the areas that are considered suitable and very suitable in the current distribution area are calculated as 63.695 km2.The spread of the species will decrease according to the model results. According to SSP5 8.5 scenario ~2090, it will predicted not seen the kind in Turkey.